Category: Research

  • Book Chapters for R1 Assistant Professors

    I can’t resist weighing in on Chris Blattman’s discussion of book chapters. I think that Chris is right that assistant professors should only focus on things that increase the probability of tenure, and that book chapters have real opportunity costs. I also agree that given the choice of placing one nugget of research output in a book chapter and a journal, the journal is better if you want to increase (1) visibility of that piece of research and (2) citations. But book chapters can have indirect benefits that far outweigh these costs.

    Here are some principles to keep in mind.

    Principle 1: Some book chapters imply immediate non-academic benefits.
    In my corners of the discipline, an invitation to contribute to a book chapter is usually not an invitation to sit in my office and write. It is also an invitation to a conference, usually someplace interesting, always on someone else’s dime, and sometimes with an honorarium. In my case, book chapters have (1) paid for part of my honeymoon, (2) introduced me to the single best bowl of noodles that I have ever eaten, and (3) helped to keep my United FF status at high levels, among many others. Each of those things has value.

    Principle 2: Some book chapters have non-immediate academic benefits.
    The folk wisdom within my household is that the connections that I have made at edited book conferences have been among the most enduring and valuable professional connections that I have ever made. These are people who certainly wrote tenure letters for me, they are people who have helped me to get jobs, they are people who review my manuscripts. They are also, in many cases, my friends. Would we have become friends otherwise? Maybe. Would they have written tenure letters for me otherwise? Again, maybe. But I am confident that I am on better footing because we spent two days working together on a common intellectual project, where they got to know me and see what I do. If you insist on thinking of opportunity costs, think of the real benefit of the book chapter as the experience that comes with working on it, and the effort devoted to writing the chapter as the price of having that experience.

    Principle 3: Some research outputs don’t belong in journals.
    Sometimes my research projects have not panned out the way that I had wanted them to. It happens to all of us. Given that, it is often possible to create a book chapter out of a piece that would not survive peer review at a good journal but that could survive peer review as a piece of a broader multi-author project at a good press. So long as the effort required to convert the research is low enough, it may be worthwhile to do this. Chris’s implicit belief that a piece of research is better as an article than as a chapter is true as a ceteris paribus statement. But ceteris is not always paribus, and there is a “citations-networking” tradeoff.

    Principle 4: Signaling games have many equilibria
    Perhaps the most insidious belief about book chapters is that you work on them if you don’t have anything else to do. This means that book chapters reveal information about your type—“high types” write articles because they can, “low types” write book chapters because they can’t write articles. This is the standard “beer-quiche” game. But when our choices are supposed to be signals, and then what we rationally learn from them depends on the information structure of the game, prior beliefs, etc. It’s not hard to work up a pooling equilibrium in which low types write chapters because they write can’t write articles, and high types write chapters and articles because writing a chapter signals that you are a high enough type to be able to afford to write chapters. (Presumably “write articles and chapters” is observable, but just allow for a continuum of types and some unobservables, and the point stands.)

    So if I didn’t know anything about you, your position in the discipline(s) or field(s) in which you work, the nature of the edited volume, the other participants, or the “extras” that come along with it, I would advise against writing a book chapter. The generic advice against book chapters is right. Or if the book chapter came with no opportunity for networking, no non-academic benefits, and required you to devote effort that could be better devoted to journal articles or books. In that case, again, don’t write that book chapter.

    But it’s not hard to work up a good argument that given the right circumstances, a particular project writing a chapter for an edited book is worthwhile. Don’t rule them out. I regret nothing about the chapters that I wrote as an assistant professor, and I am completely confident that I have done better professionally for it. Your mileage may vary, but I don’t know, and no one else does either, not in the abstract.

    I will say, this, though. Do not, under any circumstances, edit a book as an assistant professor. This advice is unconditional.

  • The Simple Statistics of Indonesian Election Polling

    There have been some useful commentaries on Indonesia’s electoral results, and some interesting speculation as to why polling results appear to some to be misleading. The general issues are two: PDIP did worse than many expected, and Islamic parties as a whole did better. Tom Power, for example, argues that the polls were “wrong” about Islamic parties. Marcus Mietzner notes that some polling experiments generated misleading conclusions about support for PDIP when prompting people to remember that Jokowi would be the PDIP presidential candidate (the implication is that these experiments were unrealistic, which is true).

    Yet we should not expect that any one poll is exactly right. How much of a difference between a poll’s average and the actual vote percentage does there need to be for the poll to have been “misleading,” for a party to have done “better than expected” given “the polls”? Some simple statistical reasoning is clarifying here.

    Polls are polls, they are not censuses. That means that they have margins of error, and that any predicted percentage supporting any party or candidate has a margin of error too. These are rarely reported—the margin of error for the entire poll usually is, but that’s not the same.

    Fortunately, we can calculate these standard errors if we have the sample size and a desired level of statistical significance. I have done just this, using the sample size and results for the most recent Indikator poll and the most recent Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting poll. (Full disclosure: I know the principal of Indikator, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, and Saiful Mujani is a co-author of mine. See here.) We can compare the expected vote return and its 95% confidence interval to the results of the Kompas Quick Count as of April 10. Here is what we get.

    pollingquickcount

    The results help to clarify to some of the debates. Saiful Mujani did better than Indikator: the results for PDIP are within his poll’s 95% CI, something we certainly haven’t heard much commentary about. Moreover, among the Islamic parties, only PAN and PKS really did better than the polls had expected. It is tempting to focus on the results for PPP and PKB, but although these results higher than the point estimate from Saiful Mujani, they are still within that poll’s margin of error. They are only outside of the margin of error of the Indikator poll, which is interesting, but suggests that that poll just did not fare particularly well.

    The point of this exercise is simply that polling results are designed to present “toplines.” We care about those. But to make inferences from them, they alone just won’t do.

    Another interesting result for students of Islam in Indonesian politics is the total fraction of the vote going to Islamic and Islamist parties compared to previous years. (I consider Islamist parties to be parties whose platforms either now or at one time in the recent past called for implementing sharia law in Indonesia; those are the dark green. The light green are Islamic parties, rooted in Muslim social organizations but making no such call for sharia.)

    islam

    It is indeed true that Islamic and Islamist parties are not disappearing. Anyone who has argued that is wrong. But on the whole, these results aren’t particularly stark in any direction. If anything, it’s the Islamic parties that have done a bit better on the whole than the past. But nothing transformative, at least not based on legislative vote shares. Greg Fealy covers some of the implications, but it’s not clear to me that there’s anything about the overall vote for Islamic and Islamist parties that needs to be explained.