Working Papers

These are current working papers only, and more recent versions may be available upon request. See my CV for a full list of publications. Links to most of my published work can be found here and at my Google Scholar profile.

Trumpism and American Democracy (With Robert Lieberman, Suzanne Mettler, Ken Roberts, and Rick Valelly, August 2017, Paper)
The insights of comparative politics and American political development, applied to the Trump presidency.

Discovery of Social Beliefs About Ethnic Structure from Survey Data (August 2017, Paper)
New conceptual tools and empirical methods for studying ethnic structure, using a topic modeling approach.

Visual Heuristics for Marginal Effects Plots (April 2017, Paper)
Visual interpretation of marginal effects plots can be misleading.

States, Neopatrimonialism, and Elections: Democratization in Southeast Asia (With Lee Morgenbesser, July 2016, Paper)
Elections do not lead to democratization in Southeast Asia. Weak states, and failed neopatrimonialism, do.
Prepared for the 2017 Meeting of the American Political Science Association (San Francisco, CA).

Predicting Self-Fulfilling Financial Crises (With Christopher Gandrud, January 2016, Paper, Slides)
A model of self-fulfilling dynamics and crisis prediction, with empirical tests.
Prepared for the 2015 Meeting of the American Political Science Association (San Francisco, CA).

Crises, Coalitions, and Change in Indonesia and Malaysia (December 2015, Paper, Slides)
The direct and indirect effects of external economic shocks on political change.
Prepared for the workshop on Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Survival (UCSD).

Resource Shocks and Local Public Goods: A Tale of Two Districts (with Sebastian Dettman, November 2014, Paper, Slides)
Slower village electrification after resource flows begin in a complex multi-level governance context.
Prepared for the 2014 Meeting of the International Political Economy Society (Washington, DC).

Is International Relations Relevant for International Money and Finance? (with David Steinberg, August 2014, Paper)
International relations research on money and finance is relatively rare, and largely irrelevant to policymakers.
Prepared for the TRIPS conference on Theory and Policy in International Relations (Washington, DC)