These are current working papers only, and more recent versions may be available upon request. See my CV for a full list of publications.

States, Neopatrimonialism, and Elections: Democratization in Southeast Asia (With Lee Morgenbesser, July 2016, Paper)
Elections do not lead to democratization in Southeast Asia. Weak states, and failed neopatrimonialism, do.

Bureaucracy and Service Delivery (With Jan Pierskalla and Audrey Sacks, June 2016, Paper)
A review essay on the embeddedness, frontline service delivery, and bureaucratic politics in the developing world.

Adab and the Culture of Political Culture (March 2016, Paper, Slides)
The politics of what Indonesians and Malaysians mean when they use the word adab.
Prepared for the workshop on Expressions of “Adab” in Southeast Asian Islam (Lehigh, PA).

Predicting Self-Fulfilling Financial Crises (With Christopher Gandrud, January 2016, Paper, Slides)
A model of self-fulfilling dynamics and crisis prediction, with empirical tests.
Prepared for the 2015 Meeting of the American Political Science Association (San Francisco, CA).

Crises, Coalitions, and Change in Indonesia and Malaysia (December 2015, Paper, Slides)
The direct and indirect effects of external economic shocks on political change.
Prepared for the workshop on Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Survival (UCSD).

Lagged Explanatory Variables and the Estimation of Causal Effects (with Marc Bellemare and Takaaki Masaki, February 2015, Paper)
Without careful arguments on substantive grounds, lagged explanatory variables should not be used for identification purposes.
Prepared for the 2015 Meeting of the American Political Science Association (San Francisco, CA).

Resource Shocks and Local Public Goods: A Tale of Two Districts (with Sebastian Dettman, November 2014, Paper, Slides)
Slower village electrification after resource flows begin in a complex multi-level governance context.
Prepared for the 2014 Meeting of the International Political Economy Society (Washington, DC).

Is International Relations Relevant for International Money and Finance? (with David Steinberg, August 2014, Paper)
International relations research on money and finance is relatively rare, and largely irrelevant to policymakers.
Prepared for the TRIPS conference on Theory and Policy in International Relations (Washington, DC)

Subnational Peripheries and the Comparative Method (August 2014, Paper, Slides)
Unit heterogeneity, complex causality, nonignorable missingness, and other problems that plague within-country research designs for causal inference. With illustrations from Southeast Asia.
Prepared for the 2014 Meeting of the American Political Science Association (Washington, DC)