Working Papers

These are current working papers only, and more recent versions may be available upon request. See my CV for a full list of publications. Links to most of my published work can be found here and at my Google Scholar profile.

Learning from Biased Research Designs (with Andrew Little, August 2018, Paper)
If you have prior beliefs about the bias in your research design, you can still learn from it.

Islam, Identity, and the Organizational Roots of Political Tolerance (with Jeremy Menchik, August 2018, Paper, Slides)
Tolerance is inherently situational, and Indonesian Muslim elites differ in predictable ways in their tolerance for Christians.
Prepared for the 2018 Meeting of the American Political Science Association (Boston, MA).

The Return of the Single Country Study (June 2018, Paper)
Single country research in comparative politics is changing, from the single country case study to the single country subnational research design.

Trump and American Democracy (With Robert Lieberman, Suzanne Mettler, Ken Roberts, and Rick Valelly, August 2017, Paper)
The insights of comparative politics and American political development, applied to the Trump presidency.

Discovery of Social Beliefs About Ethnic Structure from Survey Data (August 2017, Paper)
New conceptual tools and empirical methods for studying ethnic structure, using a topic modeling approach.

Predicting Self-Fulfilling Financial Crises (With Christopher Gandrud, January 2016, Paper, Slides)
A model of self-fulfilling dynamics and crisis prediction, with empirical tests.
Prepared for the 2015 Meeting of the American Political Science Association (San Francisco, CA).

Crises, Coalitions, and Change in Indonesia and Malaysia (December 2015, Paper, Slides)
The direct and indirect effects of external economic shocks on political change.
Prepared for the workshop on Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Survival (UCSD).

Resource Shocks and Local Public Goods: A Tale of Two Districts (with Sebastian Dettman, November 2014, Paper, Slides)
Slower village electrification after resource flows begin in a complex multi-level governance context.
Prepared for the 2014 Meeting of the International Political Economy Society (Washington, DC).

Is International Relations Relevant for International Money and Finance? (with David Steinberg, August 2014, Paper)
International relations research on money and finance is relatively rare, and largely irrelevant to policymakers.
Prepared for the TRIPS conference on Theory and Policy in International Relations (Washington, DC)