Tom Pepinsky

Author: tompepinsky

  • Wealth into Power, Indonesia Style

    In preparing for my Asian Political Economy seminar tomorrow, I ran across this quote from Bruce Dickson’s Wealth into Power: The Communist Party’s Embrace of China’s Private Sector. (By the way, this is a very good book, and comes highly recommended.)

    China’s continued economic growth challenges the common assumption that a market economy leads to democracy and common prosperity. In the short run and for the foreseeable future, it seems more likely to lead to a continuation of authoritarian rule under the Communist Party, as top leaders look for ways to govern better but not necessarily more democratically. So far, economic development has led to continued authoritarian rule as the CCP finds ways to adapt itself to the new situation in China. It is doing so by incorporating the growing number of private entrepreneurs into the political system – by integrating wealth and power – and by adopting new policies to address the social tensions created by rapid growth.

    I can’t resist imagining a similar passage to describe Indonesia in 1996.

    Indonesia’s continued economic growth challenges the common assumption that a market economy leads to democracy and common prosperity. In the short run and for the foreseeable future, it seems more likely to lead to a continuation of authoritarian rule under Golkar, as top leaders look for ways to govern better but not necessarily more democratically. So far, economic development has led to continued authoritarian rule as Golkar finds ways to adapt itself to the new situation in Indonesia. It is doing so by incorporating the growing number of private entrepreneurs into the political system – by integrating wealth and power – and by adopting new policies to address the social tensions created by rapid growth.

    Don’t misunderstand me: China 2012 is not the same as Indonesia 1996. The point, rather, is that if political change of the type that we saw in Indonesia in 1998 were on the horizon in China, we wouldn’t know it. We might even comfortably proclaim that the CCP is a coherent actor, that it anticipates its challenges, that it acts independently of the whims of political elites, that it can manage the marriage of state capitalism with private entrepreneurship, etc., even if none of these things were true. Sure, political succession will be difficult, but trying times have been managed before. Even the Bo Xilai case has shades of Benny Moerdani.

    Timur Kuran has written on the challenges of anticipating political change. Here is one accessible introduction.

  • Punta Cana = Sandakan + Siem Reap + Ottawa

    Indolaysia took a break from frigid upstate NY for a beach vacation in Punta Cana, D.R., last week. This is a new vacation concept to us: going somewhere without any intention of doing anything except for sitting around, getting sun, and playing in the water. This is the type of vacation that a 2 1/2 year old will enjoy.

    Rally Round the Family, Pocket Full of Shells

    Punta Cana is the place to do this. I had never even heard of it before we started looking for tropical islands within easy striking distance of Newark. We did not encounter anything like “culture” or “history” or even “nature” that could be explored. It’s not like Cancun, which is near interesting ruins and an interesting part of Mexico. Punta Cana is the beach and the sun, plain and simple. This is not to say that there is no culture or history or nature around; rather, it’s not for sale as a tourist commodity, in the way that these things are for sale around Cancun, or Siem Reap, or Bali. The closest thing to “culture” that you encounter as a tourist is rum (Ron Brugal: [El] Ron [de los] Dominicano[s]!) and mamajuana.

    We would describe Punta Cana like this: 1/3 Sandakan, 1/3 Siem Reap, 1/3 Ottawa.

    1. Sandakan because of its physical appearance: warm and clearly tropical but not particularly lush, very sandy soil, pretty flat. (Sandakan is very different when you move inland and away from the airport, which might be true of this part of the D.R. too.)
    2. Siem Reap because of its infrastructure and economy: massive poured concrete resort hotels interspersed with lots full of trash, some of it on fire. The entire economy is devoted to the tourist sector.
    3. Ottawa because our hotel was full of people from Ottawa. Also, because you get the sense while visiting that Punta Cana was planned, it did not emerge naturally. This goes along with the emphasis on the beach and the sun, rather than local culture or history or nature.
    Not knowing what to expect, this was all a bit surprising to us, but not unpleasantly so. EP certainly didn’t care. Perhaps even more surprising is how popular this place is, especially among Europeans and South Americans!

     

    Is there any other airport with non-stop service to Santiago, Moncton, and Moscow?