Author: tompepinsky

  • That Kristof Column

    Nick Kristof’s recent column singles out the social sciences and humanities for failing to be relevant and publicly engaged, and names political science as one of the worst offenders. It has ticked off plenty of political scientists, who wonder (quite reasonably) what planet Kristof is on. The rise of publicly engaged political science is one of the great stories of our discipline in the past decade. People will write entire dissertations about phenomena like the Monkey Cage and the Duck of Minerva, and how new media have shaped political science as a discipline.

    I don’t have much more to add about the general critique that Kristof simply isn’t paying attention. I would note that Kristof’s accompanying swipes against quantification and the decline of area studies as producing irrelevant and disengaged scholarship are just uninformed. (They also smack of innumeracy.)

    Amidst all the hullabaloo, though, something has been missed. The responses from the Monkey Cage and Duck of Minerva are basically pleas for greater attention: “we are right here!” But let’s be very clear that cutting-edge research is complicated. Conclusions are provisional, conditional, and usually unsatisfying. New research is fallible. Language is abstruse because it’s precise. We often have to say that we don’t know something, that actionable conclusions are hard to draw given the evidence available to us. And exactly none of those things fit well with what Kristof seems to have in mind.

    Let me propose that disengagement by academics is not the problem. Rather, standing in the way of greater public engagement is that public intellectuals like Kristof, and policymakers in positions of power, are not interested in the sort of knowledge that real social science produces. They don’t want careful and considered, they want sharp and snappy. Superficial and ill-considered “analysis” in the form of 800 word nuggets is just not what the academic disciplines are designed to produce. That’s a good thing. We should not want to produce “TED talk” style research, even if Kristof finds it interesting.

    Consider this Twitter exchange to be one sad illustration: the editor of Foreign Policy wants to “dial back” the academics (and a smart journalist has a witty retort).

    Of course, I’d like to see more venues for political science like VoxEU that reach out to broader policy audiences with short summaries of cutting-edge research. But while it’s great for academics to strive for greater public engagement (see, for example, this blog), it is not our problem that the Kristofs of the world aren’t interested in what we’re selling.

  • Lying with Statistics, Argentine Inflation Edition

    Not so long ago I mused about how governments can lie with statistics, focusing on incredible claims of 12% annual GDP growth in Myanmar. I find transparently lying with statistics to be a puzzling thing for governments to do, because the most egregious cases are obvious to everyone, and why bother fabricating data that everyone knows is fabricated?

    That question aside, some governments clearly do put effort into lying with statistics. And it’s hard to quantify how much they are lying. One very cool recent study by Jeremy Wallace looks at GDP figures and electricity consumption rates in China to show that provincial GDP figures seem to go up more during politically sensitive times.

    Still, sometimes a picture is worth 10,000 words. And today, via the Supply Side Liberal, I come across this incredible figure by Ezequiel Tortorelli.

    inflation

    This has to be in the top 10 best political economy graphs of all time. It shows the difference between national inflation figures as released by Argentina’s federal government (the black line) and the inflation figures released by Argentina’s provincial governments (the other lines). The divergence in 2007 corresponds to a widely acknowledged move by the government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to start intervening in federal statistics. Lying with inflation statistics, illustrated.

    Yet still I wonder—given that everyone, even me, already knew that the Kirchner government’s statistics were fishy, why do this?