I woke up this morning to see that Donald Trump had been elected president again. Like roughly half of American voters, this is not the outcome that I had hoped for. Politics, like history, is chaotic and uncertain. Yet the victorious party in American politics last night has campaigned for years on a clear platform and a coherent vision of America’s future. Voters chose that party, and institutional guardrails will not constrain the next government. American life will change accordingly.
I did not predict this outcome. I predicted no outcome, because I did not know, and what I did know made me fearful. But about two weeks ago, liberals like me started to acknowledge—quietly, privately—that we thought Trump would win again. So I am not surprised, exactly. Nor is any woman I know, including my own daughter.
But I am demobilized and discouraged nevertheless. The results confirm some of my worst fears about what Americans will support when given the choice. And now I, like others who share my views towards the next administration, must ponder how to make our way through the coming years. The threats facing Americans are not all the same, and so they will be borne unequally; people with my characteristics will face fewer risks than many others. And yet all of us will need to wake up every day and make our way through our lives, mindful of the new political world we live in, but with the same obligations as ever amidst an uncertain and frightening new future.
When I wrote “Life in Authoritarian States is Mostly Boring and Tolerable” in 2017, I was anticipating a situation much like this one. And so in the early hours of the second Trump administration, here are the implications I see.
Liberalism is Not That Popular. I am a liberal at heart. I believe in individual autonomy, collective self-determination, and political equality. I believe that this implies a certain form of politics, including the rule of law, republicanism, and proceduralism. But my values are not that popular among the voting public, and the consequences are apparent. The liberal strands (dare I say “foundations”) of American politics shall be undermined, and some dismantled. Anyone who thinks that America has never been a liberal republic will find evidence to support their position as well.
Your Institutions Will Comply with the Administration. The next administration will likely destroy some institutions, but more likely, it will work with and reshape existing institutions to suit its purposes. The mechanisms through which this will happen are legal and financial. Concretely, this is how they will direct the corporate sector, constrain universities, and shape the mass media. Electoral authoritarian regimes routinely do this around the world. Our next administration will follow that playbook. There are plenty of past precedents in U.S. history, and comparative examples around the world right now.
That means, there will come a time when the administration tells the press not to publish a story, for reasons that are transparently nonsense. The press will comply. There will come a time when universities are told what they can teach and what students can do. They will comply too. They will comply because the consequences of noncompliance are too severe, even if every single person working within those institutions opposes the actions taken in their name.
You Will Face A Choice. Many people are going to be made vulnerable under the coming administration, especially anyone who lacks a U.S. passport, women, and gender nonconforming people. Most people living in the U.S. will not be so vulnerable, but we will operate within a system in which our friends and neighbors face existential risks. And because we are embedded in institutions, we will become the agents of the administration even if we do not want to be. The institutions will comply, rendering us complicit even through nonaction, without our consent, sometimes without our knowledge.
Last week I spoke to some students who had concerns about how my institution regulates speech and protest. I told them directly: you must not assume that our university can safeguard you. You should not believe any promise that they make, because they do not rule. Our financial and legal status is contingent, and a change in government will threaten that. Make your choices fully aware of this fact.
I’ll close by spelling out the implications of this last point. People like me will face difficult, perhaps even agonizing choices about whether to comply with odious policies and oppressive regulations. Some of us will resist when we can, but others will not. It is best, in the quiet of the morning after, to sit down and think, what will you resist, and what price are you prepared to pay for that resistance.
We must all make these decisions for ourselves. I have my own values. But I also look around the world to see other countries where governments like Trump’s have been elected. And because I believe that we learn from the world around us, I anticipate that most Americans, most of the time, will choose not to resist.
Tom Pepinsky 