Tom Pepinsky

Category: Current Affairs

  • Indonesian-Australian Meat Relations

    Here is a topic which is relevant for Indolaysia right now: the politics of the Australian-Indonesian beef trade. It turns out that this is a really hot issue right now. Last month, Australia banned all exports of Australian cattle for slaughter to Indonesia out of animal welfare concerns. This came on the heels of reports that Australian cattle were being tortured in Indonesian abbatoirs. (NB: turn off the video, it’s not pleasant.) Today the Australian government allowed the resumption of cattle exports, and the Indonesian government has apparently promised to try to do better in terms of protecting animal welfare.

    The interest group politics around this is interesting. On the Indonesian side, there remains an old nationalist economic impulse under the heading of Berdikari (a portmaneau of the Indonesian phrase for “Stand On Your Own Two Feet”) that is all too happy not to import Australian beef. Some Indonesians who care about such things are a bit peeved at the idea about being lectured by foreigners about the way they handle livestock. (It does not seem to be about halal slaughter techniques, it’s more about basic sloppiness and cutting corners in big and unregulated factory-style slaughterhouses.) On the other hand, Australian beef is really, really popular in Indonesia. If you go to a nice Western or Japanese restaurant, they will proudly include Australian beef on the menu (and it is the most expensive option).

    On the Australian side, the beef industry lobbyists were furious at the government for banning exports. There’s something uniquely symbolic for Australians about the cattle industry here. (We have cowboys and ranches in the US, they have cattle stations.) The ban on exports to Indonesia was a big blow to the industry, and as you’d imagine, industry lobbyists painted this as being really difficult for small stations in the rural parts of the country. I have no idea if this is really true–if the US experience is any guide small ranchers comprise a very small part of the industry. At the same time, it appears to us that Australians are also very proud of the quality of Australian beef and the conditions under which cattle are raised. The main supporters of the export ban appear to have actually been animal rights groups and their allies in the Labour party. Which makes it interesting. The people who probably knew the cattle the best and had the most personally at stake in the animals’ welfare were by and large not the ones clamoring to look out for animal welfare in Indonesia.

  • Not Going to Bangkok

    A good friend of mine is currently in Bangkok doing some exploratory field research (he studies how politicians mobilize the poor). There was a point a couple months ago when we considered whether or not it would be possible for us to meet up while I was here, with me flying up there to see him. Needless to say, we’ve decided that that’s not a good idea. Too bad, because I’ve never been to Bangkok before, but visiting there right now is really flirting with disaster.

    From time to time I get asked what the conflict in Thailand is all about. That’s one of those questions that seems like it has a simple answer, but if you really start digging you realize how hard it is to boil it down to something simple. The proximate issue is the legacy of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was extremely popular among poor and rural citizens but who alienated the middle- and upper-class establishments, in particular in Bangkok. Thaksin was also widely accused of being corrupt (he is fantastically rich), and of being too violent in his campaigns against drug dealers and other enemies of Thai society (he was once a policeman). Thaksin was ousted by a coup in 2006; when the military allowed new elections, a candidate widely considered to be a Thaksin proxy won. Anti-Thaksin groups (“yellow shirts”) eventually mobilized big demonstrations that led to that new government’s ouster, with the help of some of their allies in the courts. The current PM, Abhisit Vejjajiva, represents the yellow shirt faction. Now, pro-Thaksin groups (“red shirts”) who believe the current political order to be illegitimate, are trying to bring the current government down. At the moment, it appears that they have failed…but no one thinks that this is over.

    Red Shirt Rally (source: Straits Times)

    5-20-10

     

    It’s tempting to say, then, that this all starts with Thaksin, that it’s a debate about his legacy. But it goes at least two levels deeper. The first level is about money and representation in Thai politics. The establishment in Thailand since, well, the 1600s or so has had a heavy bias towards comparatively well-to-do urban constituencies. Poor, rural Thais, especially those in the northeast, have always felt marginalized. Thaksin was the first national politician whose policies really targeted those marginalized Thais, and that made him genuinely popular. And because politics is a zero-sum game, strengthening this marginalized group means threatening the urban middle-class establishment. I have no doubt that if Thaksin were allowed to return to Thailand and to compete in another election, he would win handily.

    The second level, though, is about what democratic theorists call “loyal opposition.” Stable, consolidated democracies have what are known as loyal oppositions–factions that lose election but who don’t then overthrow the system in response to having lost. They are the opposition, but they are loyal to the principles of political competition. Thailand has never developed a system whereby the losing side (whoever it is) respects the outcome as legitimate. That means that someone always believes that the system is illegitimate, and will take to the streets to push for revolutionary change. I suspect that the main reason why a norm of loyal opposition never developed is because the Thai king has for too long intervened in Thai politics to solve intractable problems by fiat rather than forcing Thai politicians to come to acceptable agreements on their own. Oh, and the fact that the Thai military keeps launching coups (after Bolivia, no country has had more) doesn’t help either. Instead of working to come to acceptable agreements, both sides look to the king, the military, or both, to solve their problems for them.

    Combine the absence of a norm of loyal opposition with severe imbalances in representation, an old king who is too willing to step into politics, a coup-happy military, and a popular (if flawed) former leader, and you have the recipe for a never-ending war of attrition between two camps that sincerely believe that their opponents have no right to participate in any kind of legitimate government. This gets worse before it gets better.